When scare lists no longer pay, where should content entrepreneurs find profits?

This article provides concrete pathways from three directions: product upgrade, user expansion, and model innovation.

How to Find New Profit Growth Points When the Tobacco Health Content Market Approaches Saturation\n\nOn the afternoon of March 18, 2024, I sat at my co-working space desk in Tianhe, Guangzhou, spreading out the quarterly reports of my three main accounts to cross-check. A short video clip on Douyin titled "Lung Changes After Ten Years of Smoking" reached **2.86 million** views in 7 days; the completion rate of the same-topic long-form video on Bilibili was decent; the WeChat public account article "Must-Read for World No Tobacco Day" got **42,000** reads. The traffic dashboard looked lively.\n\nThe profit statement did not.\n\nIn the same quarter, the average brand ad price dropped from **18,000 RMB/article** to **9,000–12,000 RMB**; many people messaged asking "do you have a quitting method," but the actual conversion to paid community membership fell from **3.1%** to **1.4%**; column repurchases were nearly zero—readers bought the "harm collection" and left, as if they had browsed a free exhibition hall. Counting outsourcing costs for editing, ad testing, and my own time, net profit for that quarter was about **41%** lower than the same period the previous year.\n\nFrom that day on, I changed my assessment: **What is approaching saturation is not the "tobacco health" demand pool, but the low-barrier, replicable content supply built on scare tactics and checklist stacking.** Smokers are still here, quitting is still hard, and public monitoring shows adult smoking rates remain high and declining slowly—but "telling people about lung cancer, premature death, and the top ten harms one more time" is no longer valuable. Profits need to grow elsewhere: how to upgrade products, how to expand user groups, how to shift revenue models from traffic sharing to structured delivery.\n\n---\n\n## First, Define "Saturation" Clearly—Don't Fight a Fake Enemy\n\n### Oversupplied Content\n\nI categorized the similar articles my team repeatedly encountered in weekly meetings from late 2023 to mid-2024 into four types, almost colliding daily on recommendation pages:\n\n1. **Scare lists**: Top ten harms, one-picture understanding tar, autopsy-style covers. \n2. **Holiday bandwagon**: World No Tobacco Day, Spring Festival persuasion pieces, fixed structure, re-skinned titles. \n3. **Screenshot compilations**: Copying guideline conclusions + user comment stories, no original path. \n4. **Pseudo-comparison clickbait**: "Quit smoking day N body change timeline" templatized, inconsistent metrics, readers still didn't know what to do at 8 AM the next morning.\n\nSuch content gets traffic because algorithms still feed on emotion; but advertisers are increasingly aware: users are left with only fear, **without an action interface, there's no high-value conversion**. The CPM of fear content can spike temporarily, but private-domain trust and repurchases are bleeding chronically.\n\n### Still Scarce Demand\n\nOn the public data side, the overall market is not "smoke-free." 2024 China Adult Tobacco Survey related releases show the current smoking rate for people aged 15+ is about **23.2%**, continuing to decline by about 0.9 percentage points from 2022; the quit rate is about **22.6%**. Hazard awareness is rising, second-hand smoke awareness is also rising—**awareness up, behavioral implementation hard**—exactly where content practitioners should position themselves.\n\nThe recurring clinical and科普 narrative is also straightforward: relying on willpower alone, success rates often fall to **single digits to about 10%**; with professional assistance, medication/nicotine replacement and behavioral support, the odds rise significantly. The global smoking cessation and nicotine replacement market is still expanding, showing that "willingness to pay for quitting" hasn't disappeared—it just **won't pay for repetitive "I already know it's harmful" information anymore**.\n\nMy personal view is firm: \n**What's saturated is "knowledge theory"; what's scarce is "pathway theory."** \nWhat users truly lack is: with my smoking volume, my work socializing, my family pressure, **how to get through 72 hours, how to prevent relapse on day 7, how to do emergency recovery after relapse, how partners can help without escalating conflict**. These can't be delivered by a 60-second scare video.\n\n---\n\n## Direction 1: Product Upgrade—Get the Same Users to Pay a Second Time\n\nIn 2022 I sold a **39 RMB** "quitting cognition pack": PDF + three recorded lessons. Not many complaints, but near-zero repurchases. The most frequent user comment was: "I know, but I still can't quit."\n\nIn May 2024, we split the same traffic pool products into three tiers, **raising both average order value and repurchase rate**:\n\n| Product Tier | Deliverable | Price Reference | Problem Solved | Team Margin Perception |\n|-------------|-------------|-----------------|----------------|----------------------|\n| Cognition | Short lessons/columns/collections | Free–49 RMB | Build trust, screen intent | Customer acquisition, no profit expected |\n| Pathway | 21-day milestone plan + tracker + weekly 1x text Q&A | **199–399 RMB** | Turn "want to quit" into a schedule | One of main profits |\n| Companionship | Small group 4 weeks + milestone voice/text follow-ups (limited) | **799–1499 RMB** | Acute withdrawal & relapse window | High margin, labor-efficient |\n\nThe key isn't the price numbers themselves, but **defined boundaries**:\n\n- **No efficacy promises**. External messaging unified: provides behavioral pathway and companionship structure, doesn't replace medical care; for medication/nicotine replacement choices, redirect to "ask your doctor/pharmacist," content side only handles compliance and daily trigger management. \n- **Fixed delivery time**. Early consultants loved chatting, single Q&A sessions dragged to 40 minutes, labor efficiency exploded. Later regulated text Q&A **within 8 minutes per reply, daily voice time cap**, overtime redirects to booked add-on sessions. \n- **Milestones over inspiration**. We only emphasize three milestones: **0–72 hours, Day 7, Day 30**. Content topics, community outreach, DM scripts all revolve around these milestones—users perceive "this is a service," not "another course."\n\nVerifiable changes after the revision (June–August 2024, single account pool):\n\n- Paid conversion rate returned from about **1.4%** to **2.6%–3.0%** (DM intent user metric). \n- Pathway-to-companionship tier upgrade rate about **18%**—previously the 39 RMB cognition pack had almost no upgrades. \n- Complaint type shifted from "useless" to "too many people in the group, slow replies"—a capacity problem easier to fix than value doubts: we reduced the companionship tier's weekly new slots from **40** to **25**, and the negative feedback rate dropped immediately.\n\n**The essence of product upgrade is turning "content browsing" into "timeline + feedback."** If you insist on only selling "learn a bit more about tobacco harm," you'll only get cheaper in the oversupplied zone.\n\n---\n\n## Direction 2: User Group Expansion—Don't Just Target "Already Determined Smokers"\n\nEarly on, our persona was very narrow: 35–50 male, one pack a day, willing to quit. As a result, when ad costs rose, customer acquisition costs ate up all profits. Later we discovered: **people in the decision chain are often easier to convert and re-engage than the smokers themselves**.\n\n### 1. Partners and Adult Children: Buying "How to Say It, When to Say It"\n\nThe entry content isn't "20 ways smoking causes cancer," but:\n\n- Which persuasion phrases trigger defenses; \n- How to set smoke-free rules at home without causing a cold war; \n- What to say after a relapse to avoid destroying trust.\n\nIn July 2024, we ran a 2-hour "Family Intervention Communication" small salon in Shanghai, tickets **128 RMB**, 31 attendees, **only 9 were smokers themselves**. On-site surveys showed the highest willingness to pay came from spouses who "want their partner to stop smoking in front of the kids." \n**Profit point:** Communication course/phrase cards + referral of smokers to pathway products. Don't treat spouses as "flyer distributors"—they are paying users.\n\n### 2. Scenario-Based Audiences: Oral Health, Pre-pregnancy, Workplace Socializing\n\nOral discomfort, gum issues, bad breath, pre/post pregnancy—searches and DMs in these scenarios convert higher than general harm科普. The reason is simple: **pain is present, cancer is abstract.**\n\nOperationally, I require the topic library to have at least **40%** tied to specific scenarios, not organ scares. For example, "how to refuse smoking and drinking at dinner without burning bridges" or "10-minute alternative actions when cravings hit during late-night work." Scenario content connects more easily to pathway milestone trackers.\n\n### 3. Relapse Population: A Bigger Silent Market Than "First-Time Quitters"\n\nMany accounts only serve "people ready to quit," ignoring those who **quit then relapsed**. The latter group has stronger shame, fears being lectured, and is more willing to pay to "not embarrass themselves a second time."\n\nWe made the relapse emergency kit an independent SKU: **72-hour emergency checklist + trigger log + one 15-minute text review**, priced lower than the full companionship tier, specifically to catch DMs saying "I started smoking again." In fall 2024, this SKU's refund rate was significantly lower than the "21-day starter pack," because user expectations were more honest: they want damage control, not life inspiration.\n\n### 4. Small B-Side: Clinics, Community Health Centers, Corporate Health Days\n\nB-side doesn't start with selling ten-thousand-RMB training. We started from **content material packs**: a one-page 5A brief intervention phrase card, short video licensing for waiting areas, a 45-minute corporate smoke-free day sharing outline. Unit price from **two to three thousand** for material licensing, then grew to internal training.\n\nNote compliance and boundaries: You are content and behavioral support, not a medical institution; contracts should state "education and training, not involving diagnosis or prescriptions." With boundaries, it's actually harder to cross the line.\n\n**The principle of user group expansion: whoever hurts, whoever is urgent, whoever is willing to pay for "executable" content—they are your next profit statement.** Smokers themselves are only part of the pool.\n\n---\n\n## Direction 3: Model Innovation—Ads Are Okay, But Not as the Only Meal\n\nThe problem with single ad revenue isn't "dirtiness," it's **too much variance**: platform algorithm changes, category competition, clients cutting budgets—quarterly profits can be halved instantly. I experienced Q4 2023 when three clients simultaneously reduced budgets, and monthly ad revenue dropped by more than half, while content production was still burning money at full capacity.\n\nA more stable combination, I later consolidated into four layers, **deployed by priority, not all at once**:\n\n### 1. Membership/Community Monthly Fee (Structured Recurring Revenue)\n\nLight membership: weekly milestone reminders, monthly relapse case analysis, Q&A database. Price doesn't need to be high, the key is **renewal rate**. We separated the "monthly fee group" from the "premium companionship group"—mixing them makes premium users feel cheated and low-price users burn out the consultant.\n\n### 2. Consulting and Referral Commission\n\nContent side does screening and motivation enhancement; heavy intervention is referred to partner clinics/certified service providers, with agreed commission or fixed referral fees. \n**Pitfall:** In 2023 we tried to do "deep consulting" in-house for a while; consultant skill variance was huge, complaints and refunds ate up profits. Later we clarified: **content teams don't pretend to be quitting clinics**. Refer when appropriate, and credibility actually increased.\n\n### 3. Corporate Training and Content Licensing/White Label\n\nLicense already-validated course outlines, phrase cards, and short video scripts to local accounts or institutions for rebranding. Create once, license multiple times, low marginal cost. Best done after your own pathway products are proven; otherwise, white-labeling a half-baked product will backfire on your brand.\n\n### 4. Light Tools, Not Heavy Apps\n\nWe tried spending two months building a mini-program check-in tool; development and maintenance ate up half a year's profit expectations. Later we retreated to **spreadsheets + survey tools + community rhythm**, providing 80% of companionship functionality. \n**Tools should serve delivery, not fund-raising stories.** Scales (tobacco dependence rough assessment, trigger situation self-assessment) can be used for lead generation and tiering, but don't hype them as medical-device-grade diagnostics.\n\nHow to handle ads? My approach: **ad revenue first covers fixed costs; profit growth relies on structured products.** In good ad months, save more cash; in bad ad months, rely on memberships and pathway products as a safety net. Reverse the order, and you'll blindly expand headcount during traffic peaks and cut staff during troughs, forever paying the learning tax.\n\n---\n\n## 30–90 Days: Don't Think "Grand Transformation" First, Fix Three Tables\n\n### Days 1–30: Redo Topic Library and Funnel\n\n- Stop or reduce frequency: **pure scare lists, holiday articles without action interfaces**. \n- Suggested weekly content ratio: **scenario pathway 40% / milestone methods 30% / trust and case studies 20% / brand or collaboration 10%**. \n- Funnel metrics change from "views" to four rows: **completion or reading depth → DM/follow → add WeChat or form → payment**. Viral hits without the last two rows count as "PR victory, business useless."\n\n### Days 31–60: Launch a Minimum Paying Product\n\nDon't jump straight to 1499 companionship. Start with a **199–399 pathway tier**, deliverable as a checklist:\n\n- A 21-day schedule (printable); \n- Three milestone checkpoint explanations; \n- Weekly centralized Q&A (text only); \n- Clearly state "no commitment to quit outcome, no prescriptions provided."\n\nCollect refund reasons and pain points from 20–30 real paying users before deciding whether to add a companionship tier.\n\n### Days 61–90: Open One New User Group or One B-Side Entry\n\nChoose only one: spouse communication, relapse emergency, or one community health center/corporate material pilot. **Opening three new fronts simultaneously will kill a small team.**\n\nPost the labor efficiency formula on the wall too:\n\n**Weekly serviceable clients per consultant × average order value × gross margin − customer acquisition cost > 0**\n\nIf it doesn't compute, reduce delivery intensity or raise prices or reduce promises—don't fool yourself with "try harder."\n\n---\n\n## Three Things You Can Change Today\n\n1. **Change your pinned posts and homepage from "harm collection" to "what stage are you in"**—want to quit / currently quitting / relapsed / helping a family member quit, four entry points, each leading to different products or forms. \n2. **Add a paid milestone pack to existing columns or communities**, even if starting at 99 RMB, force yourself to clearly define delivery boundaries. \n3. **This week, drop two scare-topic articles without action interfaces**, replace them with one 72-hour pathway and one family communication scenario.\n\n---\n\nThe tobacco health content market is still buzzing, but buzz doesn't equal profit. Public monitoring shows tens of millions of smokers and a slowly declining smoking rate—the demand pool is still deep; the pain on the creator side comes from **the layer everyone knows how to write has been written through**.\n\nMy conclusion is not complicated: \n**Stop competing with your peers on who can scare better; go sell pathways, sell milestones, sell to those in the decision chain who are truly urgent, and shift revenue from single ads to repeatable deliverable products.** \nWhen the market approaches saturation, those who survive are usually not the most aggressive content creators, but those who first turn "knowing" into "what to do next."\n

Profit growth roadmap — from traffic to structured delivery

* Data from public monitoring and internal team statistics.

* Product pricing can be adjusted based on own user base and costs.